Writing
We regularly publish essays on topics that are front of mind, typically influenced by our search for what is true, novel, and durable.
AI raises a big question, but legacy industries have already answered it
The key to understanding which software models will create the most value lies in the economics of traditional industries.
SaaS was never about the software
$300B of SaaS market cap evaporated in days. Enterprises were never buying the code, so cheap AI code does not dissolve the category.
AI is coming for the jobs people actually like
Automation was supposed to start with the worst jobs. Analysis of 2.7M workers shows AI concentrating in the highest-paid, most fulfilling work.
Fixing industrial productivity: how AI will revitalize our workforce
Industrial demand is rising while skilled labor shrinks. The fix is getting every worker to the top of their license, which means choosing between assist, augment, and automate.
Unlocking hidden value: How niche markets are bigger opportunities than VCs think
Procore has reached 2% of its potential customers. Asana, Monday, and Smartsheet have already saturated the Fortune 500, and that gap is what a niche monopoly buys.
When MVPs aren't the most valuable: how to approach markets with few early adopters
Control points in industrial markets sit inside workflows buyers cannot route around. Reaching one takes a fuller product than an MVP and conditions that force buyers to move.
The Right Conditions: Great startups ride shocks and shifts. A rare few create their own.
Conditions beat categories more often than we admit. Shocks create urgency, shifts create inevitability, and the rare company manufactures both.
What happens when you over-index on momentum early
70% of startups selling to front-office buyers reach $100M ARR in under ten years. Only 40% of back-office sellers do, and at scale the advantage flips.